Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Wild's Predicting Bad Moon on the Rise

Okay - so he's saying that we might find 90% decline in the current market - combined with increasing interest rates...and cash is place to be. Deflation, hard times, just around the corner - maybe after one last hurrah (Naz about 20% above current levels).

Maybe, maybe not. I'm still sticking with cash rich - and the rising long rate will do well for my current holders.

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Got whacked hard today. Added EN

The total port is down over 2%.


I'm adding EN to the mix - it's a European Utility that yields over 8% - huge company, good yield. I cant ask for too much better.

Except - stock has already experienced the run up.

BTW - even if the port goes down quite a bit more - remember; these are paper losses - while the stocks are down, I can reap the income. When the stocks come back up (hopefully) capital gains would be all the vogue.

Hopefully. I'm feeling not so well indeed.

Saturday, February 19, 2005

Should have told ya

I'm buying the following.

CPV --- 26.65
NLY --- 19.28
GGB --- 17.90
AHM --- 31.50
TMA --- 29.01
RWT --- 57.70
IMH --- 20.02
SIGM ---11.80
NOVL --- 5.90
CLF --- 65.59

CPV, NLY, AHM, TMA, RWT, IMH are mine...for good or for bad. CPV especially - a good idea.

GGB, SIGM, NOVL, CLF are M buys.

This is built as a combination income and growth device.

NLY, AHM, TMA, RWT, IMH are all somewhat levered income generators. Essentially they borrow short and lend long - and the difference is what I get as a dividend. Greenspan has called this position good ONLY for those who WANT to lose money.

I'm betting that these highly levered version of banks arent gonna feel too much of a pinch - on the other hand - they arent cheap. Not yet. The bad news hasnt hit them yet.

So on the one hand - they arent cheap. On the other - there's bad news all around it and the stock prices are holding up decently well.

I bet that the banks cry Uncle before anything bad happens - Greenspan is always up for keeping the economy feeling good with that oh so good MZM - maybe even M3 if he's feeling generous and can do it.

CPV - holding correctional I'm gonna be an owner of a company that owns PRISONS. Amazing aint it?

Overall - what do I see coming down the pike?

I see the bad moon rising. I see trouble on the way. - CCR

I think what we're gonna get is simple - a recession caused by the Federal Reserve. It took 18 months for the "good stuff" to get the feet into the economy - we kept on hearing that time period when short rates were falling - what makes it any different on the upside?

We're gonna see a massive contraction in the current global economy. The emerging markets have been doing too well - so have commodities.

Expect that to change in an instant. US consumers are gonna go bust - and take China and Japan with it. Japan can weather such a storm. China wont. It'll take oil, steel and a few other plays out with it. The dollar will be stronger. GOLD TOO may be stronger.

What we wont expect is that the Euro will be weaker. And bonds will do really well all around (except Euroland bonds).

This will save the above mentioned portfolio - until then the ride can be quite rough and tumble.

Of course - I might be wrong.

Thursday, February 17, 2005

I'm Back

Okay - this is getting a bit boring.

I'm back.

I'm getting about 11 stocks (one per you know) and this time I VOW to keep them locked up for good.

Yes. For good.

If I lose it all - good for me. I hope to lose it all.


Of course I'm joking about wanting to lose it all - but sometimes you just have to accept fate as it is.

Wednesday, February 16, 2005

Joys of Materalism

Okay - now that I'm out of the market I've seen the joys of materalism come back.

Instead of looking at a dollar as an investment opportunity I look at it and think "Wow, I can get some soda with this."

I've got a digital camera - gonna make myself a photo blog. Pretty nice camera me thinks - though as with all things digital the stuffs gonna be obsolete by March. If not sooner.

But that's okay - it should last me a while.

Als0 - for whatever reason - I'm gettin a slightly more healthy approach to money.

I feel now I can go back without becoming a totally a nervous investor.

I'm not too bad at it. I need to get an idea - know what the weaknesses are - then go with it.

Anyhow - I'm out.

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