Saturday, January 08, 2005

I'm Out

Okay - I'm totally out of the market - except some very diversified trusts and stuff like that (ETFs).

I'm pretty much 70% cash - actually, closer to 85% cash as of next monday.

What's going on now is a bit crazy - and SP is declining on INCREASING volume. And the dollar is stronger by more than I thought was likely in such a short time.

If I'm wrong - well...I'm wrong and I'll have to wait a while before something comes up that peeks my interest.

I'm still holding GGI - just because it's such an amazing concept that we can actually have privately run prisons.

I'm a longer term dollar bear - and in a year or two I may take my first huge short position and short the dollar. But not now. Too much play in the system is doing the same thing.

Worst thing?

Easy easy easy easy money continues. Dollar becomes real cheap. Everything increases in prices. I have very very money in this bet - and therefore if it happens - I'm screwed.

Best?

Dollar goes up, interest rates spike, stocks go down the tube. Emerging markets become dirt cheap.

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