Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Oil, Material in Shitter

Okay...Oil and materials are down a TON today...again.

Is the market signalling deflation?

No way...the Fed wont allow that to happen...they'll pump up the drug supply (M1, or M3) before they allow that to happen.

I'm still betting on inflation.

I know that even if I lost everything - I will have exactly what I have now...nothing...right?

BS - I have a lot...and really cant face the prospect of losing it...that's scary as hell.


Okay - I'm really relaxing a bit here - the slide stopped before today's market closed. At least I get a bit of a breather.

Let's do some fundemental analysis here.

1. Oil prices are high.
2. Oil prices are trading above 35 bucks - 6 years out.
3. The dollar is overvalued - if it tumbles oil prices will rise.
4. India will pick up any slack that happens in China.
5. The world is inflationary.
6. Oil stocks are only retrenching to their recent highs...before they went nuts.
7. If oil stocks are overvalued - we should see the money going to someplace else.

Okay - also - how the fuck can you call a stock that yields 10% NOT a "value" stock? I dont think you can.

I'm holding on.

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