Monday, October 18, 2004

Bush Scares the Shit Out of Me

I wonder how this would effect investments - I would say that this would adversely affect the dollar and bonds demoninated in dollars. Or the economy slows and we see deflation.

The rich (who run the country, let's speculate) would want little to no inflation. Bonds tend to do better in Republican admins.

That being said - we're in a war. And Bush would want to expand it....and since reality is no obstacle...inflation may be the answer.

How about this -

1. Dollar would depreciate without much inflation.
2. "Real" assets would appreciate (Land, Oil, Gold?)
3. Non real assets (Brands, quality) will depreciate relatively.
4. Foreign (Europe? UK? Japan) will be better off in terms of actual companies.

This would mean -

Buy some real production companies -

1.PGH
2.PVX
3.TRU
4.BPT
5.FDG
6.PTF
7.ERF
8.EENC
9.SJT
10. Double Down On 9

Also -

LYG
ING
DT


Time to get the heck out...update later
let's see what the market will bring today.

Thursday, October 14, 2004

Financials Are Breaking Down?

Okay...Intereseting...

AIG and GM are breaking down. AIG because they are being sued. GM...because of layoffs they say....but I dont buy that....

BAC and JPM are down 2% each...interesting.

Might be something about the consumer credit sector...KBR is down too..but not by much

Oil Recovers + Diversification

Oil related stocks recovered today.

PVX and PGH are up 2% or so...GMR is up 4% or so...but interestingly oil service (exploreration) companies arent doing as well...

The dollar is a tad firmer, but nothing out of the ordinary.

++++Update++++

I'm a fucking idiot - I've traded during the trading day...I cant seem to stop myself from doing it....

this is bad...very bad...

Bought TRU

+++Seperate+++

Okay - first off...IAG is down 3% today. NEM isnt...so...I dont get it.

Anyhow - I've been "diversified" in a retarded way.

I'm not a good stock picker - but I might be better at picking sectors (which is almost just as good).

So what do I do? I pick 2-3 stocks in a variety of economic sectors because I think that this will lead to me getting a good cap gain...retarded.

I should put all my money into a very broad spectrum of stocks in a particular sector. The big winners easily kick the ass of the losers (who I tend to pick).

Anyhow...I really wont listen to this either I'm sure....I'm a moron.

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Oil, Material in Shitter

Okay...Oil and materials are down a TON today...again.

Is the market signalling deflation?

No way...the Fed wont allow that to happen...they'll pump up the drug supply (M1, or M3) before they allow that to happen.

I'm still betting on inflation.

I know that even if I lost everything - I will have exactly what I have now...nothing...right?

BS - I have a lot...and really cant face the prospect of losing it...that's scary as hell.

++++++Update++++++

Okay - I'm really relaxing a bit here - the slide stopped before today's market closed. At least I get a bit of a breather.

Let's do some fundemental analysis here.

1. Oil prices are high.
2. Oil prices are trading above 35 bucks - 6 years out.
3. The dollar is overvalued - if it tumbles oil prices will rise.
4. India will pick up any slack that happens in China.
5. The world is inflationary.
6. Oil stocks are only retrenching to their recent highs...before they went nuts.
7. If oil stocks are overvalued - we should see the money going to someplace else.


Okay - also - how the fuck can you call a stock that yields 10% NOT a "value" stock? I dont think you can.

I'm holding on.

Monday, October 11, 2004

Gotta Love the Brits...Again

"In Paktia province, registration reached a near-miraculous 170% of the electoral body’s target,"

Yes indeed.

Okay...I'm sittin on my hands for the GRNTE fund...wait a few months...see the performance...see how it does...see how crazily unfocused it is.

IAG, Oil, Etc

Okay - so the oil trade is breaking down a bit....

GMR - down 4% today
VLCCF - down 3.5%
NAT - Same

IAG - down 5%
SIRI - down 5%

Jesus Fucking Christ.

But BPT is up...why the fuck?

Okay...

Two rules

1. Dont trade during the trading day.
2. Dont check my Ameritrade account - check only my M account...go from there.

Envy and Me

Okay...

I must remind myself that I have to calm down.

I only live once.

Imagine a tranquil ocean.

There are things happening all over the place, but I am on the tranquil ocean.



Sunday, October 10, 2004

Some Metaphysical Thoughts

Todays topic is risk -

The Bible tells us that risk is not a good thing - "Divide your wealth into 6th or 7th" (some such quote) it tells us.

However - we dont live in Biblical times. We live in the US of A - And things are hyper drived here. Ignorance is bliss, cooperation is dead and while we talk a good game....actually...scratch that...we even are talking a bad game.

Okay - anyhow. Risk is encouraged. All we ever see are the winners - we dont see the losers. The winners talk about their victories and how they always knew that it would happen to them.

The losers sit back and talk like winners, the winners are all over the damn place flaunting their success, the loser spend money like winners, but are still losers.

So risk is encouraged. Everyone is desperate to be winners and they think that they, as individuals will beat the odds and get the money - everyone else be damned.

In the end, at least statistically, they end up screwing themselves. But they dont know this...and ignorance is bliss.

I'm not immune from this society. I cant function in this society without the radiation of positivity and self assurance doesnt occassionally rub off on me. But I do a decent job at countering it - but it may make me...or at least make me seem....very negative.

Anyhow - about my own risks....I'm thinking of taking my main account and making it into a 10-15 equity gig.

Already removing some vestiges of the old way of thinking (out of SPY and DIA) - and going to refocus my efforts into actually beating the market....but.....as always....I might be late to this party.

+++++++Additional+++++++++


Reminder to Myself;


The best I can do is the best I can do. Everyone else is doing the best that they can do. Wish them the best of luck in all endevours because we all need it.

Risk Takers

Okay - tell me if this sounds at all smart -

I will be getting 400k US dollars in the next year.

I take this 400k and invest it in various CDs, GNMA or long maturity Treasuries - take the 15-20k income per annum that this provides and invests this in equity.

The risks?

Dollar drop, inflation spikes, especially in the near term since it would really effect the most marginally useful dollars first.

Okay...so I'm not sure this sounds all that smart anymore.

But I do need a plan...dont I?

Money Talks

Okay - So I told a friend that I have a significant amount of money. I also offered her something really really dumb (a new car...damn me).

If I reneg on the deal I'm screwed. If I go threw with it, I'm screwed.

Okay - So I havent kept silent about money. I really should...but I really want to tell....

Wow - want to tell. What a retarded reason to have it.

Of course - other people do the same exact thing, but that doesnt make it right.

Also - this friend has a credibility problem and is kind of a bitch. Nice girl, but still kinda bitchy.

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