Monday, August 08, 2005

Mortgage REITs down, Banks Not.

Okay, so Barrons wrote a peice on why Mortgage REITs should go down, low div compared to Treasury, low Funds from operations (FFO) and such.

Well, suddendly ALL REITs (whether or not they have anything to do with the above) are down like 5% in one day and 10% over two days.

Mortgage REITs are also down, which is wierd considering that they're more like banks and not at all like REITs in a traditional sense.

Me thinks Mortgage REITs are being thrown out with the REIT bathwater.

Interestingly, DWSN, ATW and such are up because of good news in the same issue of Barrons.

Oil hits 64 and they're finally saying that it might be a good time buy up on this stuff? Yeah. Great. Thanks for the update when I no longer hold those stocks.

I'm gonna buy up CPV and something else (I dont know what exactly yet) on this weakness.

Friday, April 22, 2005

Next 36 Months - an Overview

We're going to see some really rough times over the next couple of years.

Interest rates will go up until a "neutral" rate is reached (4 - 4.5%).

This WILL cause a global slowdown.

The Fed will cut rates when it looks like we're going to have a financial asset meltdown.

Inflation will be the order of the day - the more we print the more prosperous we are.

Be in short cash for now - buy in about 18 months - buy cheap things.

Oil, Steel, Mortgage REITs.

And remember to collect those dividends.

Sunday, April 17, 2005

Okay - Here's The Thing

We're down, we're down hard, and we're down fast.

Deflation is the scare - the reality is inflation.

Negative return on bonds - hold real crap, not fake crap.

I'm glad I'm holding onto cash generators - they'll never go negative. The Fed wont allow the banks to go bust like that. I hope.

Saturday, March 12, 2005

Rain Drops Keep Falling on My Head

Okay - so NLY is down like 7% in one day on news that Citi is no longer liking that fund.

Wait 3 weeks - it's going to be a great buying opportunity.

I still like NLY, TMA and the like. Interesting how NLY went down so much but TMA (lower credit rating holder) did better than NLY.

Me think things are bogus.

X, OS and AKS are getting hit hard. Why? Because the world is running on loose supply. Low inflation, all that.

NLY, TMA and the like are getting hit hard. Why? Because the world is running so tight with supply being constrained and interest rates have to rise.

Both cant be true. Or at least - I dont see how both can be true.

Something not right here - but me too simple minded to pick it up.

Right?

Yeah.

Anyhow - I went to go see the Movie "Sahara" for free since a friend had one of those "free pass" things (special preview, to get the word out for the movie).

Here's the review - IT SUCKS. Entertaining, yes; but a TERRIBLE movie. Decent sound affects.

What part of this story doesnt make sense to YOU?

During the US Civil War the Confederate States of America made an "Iron Clad" ship. The ship has some "precious" cargo. The ship ends up in Africa. But not just Africa - in the Sahara desert due to a huge storm that apparently flooded the desert.

Very close to this ship (not yet found) is a solar power plant that is used to destroy chemicals - but it creates more problems than it solves (namely, it doesnt create electricity, but just burns extremely toxic agents that are still toxic when burned off).

There is a doctor with the World Health Organization who sees people coming out of the country with this toxic waste incinerator and they are very sick indeed. They dont know if it's a disease or if it's a toxin (I thought doctors knew this kind of stuff - but apparently science and forensics fails to detect toxins).

Anyhow - she (Penelope Cruz) ends up in the military dictatorship nation that harbors both this toxic agent and the Iron Clad ship.

Apparently the United States government has NO IDEA of this HUGE, EASY TO IDENTIFY, NOT HIDDEN AT ALL toxic waste incinerator in the middle of an otherwise empty desert. I wonder why we spend so much money on satellites if we cant identify the biggest god-damn solar power plant on the planet.

Anyhow - after the Huey is shot down by the (now found) Iron Clad the dictatorship fails - and the rebels win freedom.

What's not to understand.

Penelope Cruz - she cant act at all. If she wasnt somewhat hotter than average she wouldnt get any work. Maybe she's got other talents. I havent seen them.

Now - the same night I saw this movie I brought over Mulholland Drive (David Lynch) - anyhow - cinematic opposite night. Amazing acting with a convoluted story for a good reason - compared to crap acting with convoluted story for no real reason.

Anyhow - stocks keep on going down for now - but I'm trying to get some faith.

Sunday, March 06, 2005

The I'm Out Port, Developements, Thoughts

The I'm out Port has done well for itself - adding about 10% of value - a tad less actually, in about a month and 2 weeks. FDG has been the best perfomer - followed by the steel stocks (X, OS) which apparently have some steam left in them.

I always get out a bit too early.

The new port is working out pretty well. In terms of cap gains I'm doing about as well with this as my GRNTE port.

And...Now I'm looking at a few stocks that I like but dont have the cash in my account to buy.

SDA
CTC

Both high yielding - both large companies engaged in "real" activity. Very interesting.

Added benefit - they're both foreign - so it might explain why they arent being totally picked up.

Anyhow. That's it for now.

Will write more later.

Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Wild's Predicting Bad Moon on the Rise

Okay - so he's saying that we might find 90% decline in the current market - combined with increasing interest rates...and cash is place to be. Deflation, hard times, just around the corner - maybe after one last hurrah (Naz about 20% above current levels).

Maybe, maybe not. I'm still sticking with cash rich - and the rising long rate will do well for my current holders.

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Got whacked hard today. Added EN

The total port is down over 2%.

UGLY.

I'm adding EN to the mix - it's a European Utility that yields over 8% - huge company, good yield. I cant ask for too much better.

Except - stock has already experienced the run up.

BTW - even if the port goes down quite a bit more - remember; these are paper losses - while the stocks are down, I can reap the income. When the stocks come back up (hopefully) capital gains would be all the vogue.

Hopefully. I'm feeling not so well indeed.

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